Projected Trends in High School Graduating Class Sizes Across the United States

The size of the graduating class in 2025 is projected to peak at 3.93 million high school graduates across the United States. This represents a 4 percent increase from the 3.77 million graduates in the Class of 2019. However, after 2025, the number of high school graduates is expected to decline moderately over the next dozen years due to lower birth rates following the Great Recession.

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In specific regions, the trends vary:

The Northeast and Midwest are expected to see largely flat numbers through 2025, followed by a decline.

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The South is projected to experience growth in high school graduates until 2026, after which the numbers will dip but remain higher than in recent years.
The Western region will see some small-population states increase their graduate production, but this will be offset by declining numbers in California after 2024.

This projection is important for higher education institutions and policymakers as it affects university budgets, state financial aid programs, and job markets.

Projected Trends in High School Graduating Class Sizes Across the United States

Preview

In specific regions, the trends vary:

The Northeast and Midwest are expected to see largely flat numbers through 2025, followed by a decline.

Preview
The South is projected to experience growth in high school graduates until 2026, after which the numbers will dip but remain higher than in recent years.
The Western region will see some small-population states increase their graduate production, but this will be offset by declining numbers in California after 2024.

This projection is important for higher education institutions and policymakers as it affects university budgets, state financial aid programs, and job markets.